Sunday, 25 June, 2017

Dollar advances as Fed widely expected to raise rates

Watch the Reserves, not the Rates for a Better Picture of the Economy What the February jobs report means for the upcoming Fed meeting
Mae Harvey | 15 March, 2017, 01:14

Stocks of smaller companies also took big hits. Inflation is nearing the Federal Reserve's 2.0 per cent goal, and the world economy including the once-sick Eurozone has skirted the risk of a deep new downturn. I believe Janet Yellen will continue to play her rate game, but you musn't be scared that there are going to be further radical rate increases. The other four predicted rate increases ranging from 25 to 50 bps later this year.

Bloomberg forecasts have given a 100 per cent probability to a 0.25 percentage-point hike at this meeting.

It would be the third time the central bank has raised borrowing costs since December 2015 - after keeping rates near zero for seven years.

Five-year variable-rate mortgages are available at rates as low as prime minus 0.80% (1.90% today) for high-ratio buyers, and at rates as low as prime minus 0.60% (2.10% today) for low-ratio buyers.

A buoyant construction industry meant 235,000 new jobs were added to the U.S. economy in February, more than expected. For example, the U-6 unemployment rate is less encouraging.

And so unlike typical hiking cycles, the Fed's readiness to raise rates now is not an effort to cool down the economy, but to bring rates closer to a level considered normal.

The month of March has been cruel to Ms Yellen in the past. In January, the USA consumer price index (CPI) was 2.5 percent higher than the reported CPI of January 2016. He declined to comment on Indonesia's monetary policy stance.

More evidence of economic strength was published Tuesday, as leaders of numerous largest USA companies raised their outlook for hiring, sales, and investment for the next six months.

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The US central bank will announce its decision on interest rates Wednesday, with investors looking for additional signs of whether there will be another quarter-point hike at the Fed's June meeting.

"Over the next two years, Trump economic policies are expected to boost U.S. growth prospects, but the side effects on the fiscal deficit, inflation, health care and trade and immigration policies could do real damage to our country's longer-term growth potential", wrote Scott Anderson, chief economist at Bank of the West in San Francisco.

Here's how the Fed's rate hikes could affect you. Our higher GCC market interest rate outlook for 2017 is largely driven by expected U.S. rate hikes, with signs of improved liquidity conditions in the banking sector. Two stocks fell on the New York Stock Exchange for every one that rose.

USA long-dated and benchmark Treasury yields edged lower after the drop in oil prices was viewed as a deflationary sign, but the drop in yields was limited as investors awaited the Fed's policy statement.

The alarm bells over potential bouts of stock volatility surrounding the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate hike this week may be misplaced.

And while the broadest gauge of the economy's health - the gross domestic product - remains well below levels associated with a healthy economy, many analysts say they're optimistic that Trump's proposed tax cuts, infrastructure spending increases and deregulation may accelerate growth.

The manufacturing and mining sectors, specifically, saw big growth.

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