Friday, 28 July, 2017

Oil price climbs as Opec offers early consensus on renewed deal

Mae Harvey | 13 May, 2017, 10:00

We bring down our forecasts to reflect the crude reality: stocks are still too high and usa supply is set to recover faster than we anticipated.

OPEC members and their partners in the oil production cut agreements from last November and December have reached a consensus to extend the deal until the end of 2017, the oil ministers of Iraq and Algeria said at a joint news conference.

The US dollar, meanwhile, gained 1 per cent against a basket of currencies so far this week as it rose to its highest since April 21, pressuring greenback-denominated oil.

Opec and industry sources said there had been discussions about extending curbs until the end of the first quarter 2018, when crude demand is seasonally at its weakest.

Oil prices rose on Tuesday, but faced headwinds from concern over slowing demand and the rise in U.S. crude output that has shaken investors' faith in the ability of OPEC to rebalance the market. The twelve member states will be joined by Russian Federation, but USA production remains a concern.

Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, has notified several Asian refiners of its first cuts in crude allocations for regional buyers since Opec's output reduction took effect in January.

Brent was 60 cents higher at $50.82 a barrel by 1255 GMT after hitting an early high of $51.09.

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In a monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries revised up its estimate of oil supply growth from producers outside the group this year to 950,000 barrels per day (bpd), up from a previous forecast of 580,000 bpd.

A cornerstone of the Saudi promise to rebalance the market would be to extend, potentially into 2018, a pledge led by the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producers including Russian Federation to cut output by nearly 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) during the first half of the year.

Industry group American Petroleum Institute reported that crude prices also gained support by the fall in U.S. inventory, a 5.8 million barrel decline. "This means OPEC must do more than just rolling over the production cut deals in order to maintain this price floor", said Mr. Gao.

While Saudi Arabia and non-OPEC nation Russian Federation signal they could extend cuts into 2018, concerns remain about the pace of rising USA supply, which the EIA sees climbing to a record next year.

Production rose, however, and gasoline demand over the last four weeks was 2.5 percent lower than at the same time period a year ago. This was the biggest draw of the year.

World oil demand growth for 2017 was left unchanged at 1.27 million barrels per day with non-OECD countries leading the growth.

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