Friday, 18 August, 2017

Tropical system forecast to enter Gulf today on path to -- where?

Hurricane forecasters keeping an eye on Gulf this weekend Tropical storm could form by next week
Heather Davidson | 20 June, 2017, 01:16

The plume of tropical moisture extends well east and north of the potential center, and that is going to be something that could impact our area over the next few days. It has a 90 percent chance of formation over the next 48 hours.

The hurricane center said conditions appear to be good for the low to develop slowly as it moves northwestward and into the Gulf early next week. Check out where models track the potential tropical system.

A broad area of low pressure located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today, if necessary.

Would-be Bret is expected to move through the Winward Islands tonight and early Tuesday. The reason for the low confidence forecast as of now is because of numerous differences in reliable forecast models on where it will eventually track.

But that's only one qualification for a tropical depression or storm. Tuesday through Friday, South Mississippi could see 4 to 8 inches of rain, winds at 23 to 35 miles per hour and high seas, the NWS says. Strengthening is likely and there's a 40% chance of the storm being named in the next 2 days.

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Tropical storm warnings have been issued for Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines in the Windward Islands.

Advisories have been issued for what it calls Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, about 485 miles east-southeast of Trinidad, moving to the west at 23 mph.

Given the forecast cone from the NHC, this system is expected to reach tropical storm strength on Monday. Hurricane season started June 1 and ends November 30.

It is not yet classified a "Tropical Storm" because it doesn't have a closed surface circulation.

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