Oil Prices Move Higher on Signs of Moderating US Output
Oil Prices Move Higher on Signs of Moderating US Output
Opec left itself vulnerable to the quick return of US shale oil and the recovery of production in exempt members. Ramzi Boudina Reuters
04 July, 2017, 01:13
Oil futures advanced for a seventh consecutive day on Friday, as shale explorers broke the longest stretch of uninterrupted growth in three decades.
Crude oil prices keep up the rally for the week, though several analysts are saying the markets may start to pump the brakes. They include an analysis of the price differences in some contacts, which is key to understanding whether the market is oversupplied or under-supplied, analysts including Jeff Currie wrote.
Plus, Nigerian exports are expected to rise further in August to reach at least 2 million bpd, a 17-month high; meanwhile, Libya's output has now exceeded 1 million bpd, a four-year high.
The economists comments come in the context of the Organisation for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), having previously announced that its members would cut production in order to force the price upwards. Goldman's $7.50 per barrel reduction pales in comparison to Bank of America, which predicted as recently as April that Brent prices would rise to $70 per barrel by the summer.
Data indicating a fall in U.S. production bolstered markets this week after crude prices hit a 10-month low last week in the face of a mounting supply glut.
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WTI Crude production has helped to boost the number of rigs in operation to new highs, according to the latest Baker Hughesreports.
The current situation is that stock of crude oil rose to 118,000 barrels over the past week and simultaneously production dipped by 100,000 barrels a day. WTI is down 5.64% over the past year. Does it point to decelerating USA production, or is it just a blip before growth resumes again? The IEA sees Non-Opec supply growth of 1.5 mbpd next year compared to demand growth of 1.4 mbpd. USA manufacturers grew at the fastest pace in nearly three years, with the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-manufacturers-growing-at-fastest-pace-in-three-years-ism-finds-2017-07-03) rising to 57.8% in June from 54.9%. We noted how the continued expansion of United States shale oil output and the introduction of new energy alternatives have diminished OPEC's ability to influence the oil markets.
Mohammed bin Salman, now Crown Prince, has been promoting a program to diversify Saudi Arabia away from its dependence on crude. We believe that many countries in that region would like to see the oil prices hover around $60 in the medium term and this escalation of the tension would be quite useful in achieving that.
Other sources confirm the decline as well: preliminary data by Reuters estimate that oil loadings from Russian Baltic Sea ports will decline by 13% to 2,1 million tonnes in the first 12 days of July.
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