Saturday, 18 November, 2017

Oil continues mild rebound with production cuts a possibility

QNB forecasts oil price at $58 in 2018 QNB forecasts oil price at $58 in 2018  09 Jul 2017- 1:02
Mae Harvey | 12 July, 2017, 00:37

"The OPEC/non-OPEC ministerial monitoring committee will discuss the impact of the output curbs on the market at the July 24 meeting".

OPEC needs to "shock and awe" the oil market with deeper cuts for prices to improve, or otherwise crude could slump below $40/bbl, Goldman Sachs says in a report released yesterday.

Crude sank into bear territory last month amid concerns the cutbacks by OPEC, Russia and other allies are being partially offset by a rebound in USA shale production.

"Capping Libya and Nigeria might help but won't cut the supply by much", he added.

Oil prices inched up Monday with talk of production curbs in Libya and Nigeria and a sign of shrinking USA stockpiles leading to a small rebound from a recent slide. In May, OPEC and some non-OPEC producers extended a deal until March 2018.

Market surveys estimate that Nigeria's crude oil production rose to 1.8 MMbpd in June 2017.

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Oil prices were also lifted by reports that OPEC may be considering capping production in members Nigeria and Lybia.

Over the first half of the year, the 11 OPEC members bound by the output curbs were fully compliant with their pledges, the Bloomberg survey showed.

On the other side of the coin, Neil Dwane, global strategist and chief investment officer at Allianz Global Investors, believes oil production supply is threatened around the world: he told CNBC that geopolitical risks other than those in the Middle East warrant serious scrutiny.

However, it is not clear if Nigeria would be allowed to get back production up to 2 million bpd before the cap is implemented.

United States crude futures CLc1 settled up 17 cents or 0.4% to $44.40 a barrel, while Brent crude futures LCOc1 also rose 17 cents or 0.36% to $46.88 a barrel.

Though new projects mean total global production continues to rise, the slide at aging fields may give OPEC a helping hand by reducing surplus supply today, according to Erlingsen. "Deepening the reductions under the current agreement is not on the agenda", Almarzooq said. Producers have reportedly begun to consider asking the two nations to limit their output.

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